William Katz: Urgent Agenda
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SUNDAY, AUGUST 24, 2008
BIDEN FROM ABROAD
Posted at 7:34 p.m. ET
I've written here before that foreign journalists, usually British, often have a clearer view of our politics than do American writers. Here's an example, an assessment of Obama's choice of Biden, by William Rees-Mogg in The Times of London:
Joe Biden has one crucial qualification to be the next vice-president of the United States, at least in the eyes of Barack Obama. He is not Hillary Clinton. Mr Obama has made the opposite decision to the one made by another young and relatively inexperienced Senator in 1960. John F.Kennedy distrusted and detested Lyndon Johnson, but he asked him to become his running- mate in the election because he thought that Johnson would help to deliver the Texas vote. He did, and Texas was one of the key states that took Kennedy into the White House.
Senator Biden is no Hillary Clinton; he presents no threat though little promise to Mr Obama. In the primary elections, Mrs Clinton gained 18 million votes. Among women she had a devoted following - and who still believe she should have been the candidate. If she had been on the ticket, she would have brought a lot of votes with her, as did Johnson. In rejecting her as his running-mate, Mr Obama has taken the risk that his margin of victory might be wiped out.
Well stated. I'd have one little quibble: Hillary would have cost some votes as well, so we really can't predict the outcome had she been on the ticket.
This was, no doubt, a difficult choice. If Mr Obama had chosen Mrs Clinton, the Clintons might have overshadowed his campaign. Their baggage, particularly Bill Clinton's past scandals, might have been embarrassing. Like Johnson, Bill Clinton is a big political figure. One can understand that Mr Obama wanted to emphasise that he was his own man. Yet in rejecting Hillary Clinton, Mr Obama may have lost the White House. Many Democrats do believe that.
The key point he makes is that Obama was not capable of choosing someone as large, or larger, than he is. Kennedy could do it. He swallowed hard, as I recall, but did it.
And the writer has another problem with Biden:
In 1987 Joe Biden was already a senior member of the US Senate. He held the post of chairman of the Judiciary Committee, the Senate committee that has to approve nominations to the Supreme Court. On July 1, President Ronald Reagan announced the nomination of Robert Bork to the Supreme Court...
...Two months before the hearings even started The New York Times reported Mr Biden as saying that he “would oppose the nomination and would lead the fight in the senate”. He had not yet heard any of the evidence. He subsequently published the Biden Report, which again misrepresented Judge Bork's legal position; it is a merely partisan document. On October 23 the Senate rejected the nomination. Whoever else got justice, Judge Bork did not.
This won't be a big issue with most Americans. But it could rally McCain's conservative base, which regards the Bork rejection as a defining moment in the building of the conservative coalition. It could also upset some Catholics. Biden presents himself as a good Catholic, but opposition to Bork was based heavily on Bork's anti-abortion views. As the writer concludes:
Mr Biden's nomination as vice- president may or may nor reignite this issue. Yet Mr Biden was chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee in 1987; he did play a leading part in a grossly unfair campaign against the nomination of Judge Bork; he does exploit his Catholic religion as part of his political appeal. His handling of the Bork nomination was an abuse of office for which he has never apologised.
All right, let's see how far this goes. I haven't seen the Bork issue mentioned yet in any American paper, but I suspect it's coming. It's entirely legitimate.
August 24, 2008. Permalink 
TAKE NOTE!
Posted at 5:08 p.m. ET
This just in: For those of you slackers who think this week's Democratic convention is just another political meeting, Nancy Pelosi wants to set you straight. This is about the future of civilization itself. It's about our world, and whether it will survive. It's about...I can't go on. Let her speak for herself:
DENVER -- For those who thought this was just another election, Nancy Pelosi says to wake up: the planet is at stake in the choice between Barack Obama and John McCain.
"We've got a planet to save. Nothing less is at stake other than civilization as we know it today," the California Democrat and speaker of the House told reporters Saturday afternoon in assessing the election and the nominating convention taking place here over the next week.
Subliminal message: "John McCain, planet wrecker!" She goes on, her deep wisdom obvious:
She said Mr. Obama's new running mate, Sen Joseph R. Biden Jr., was a good choice because he melds Washington know-how with an outsider's view. She pointed to his daily commute by train from his home in Delaware to Washington as evidence he is still a man of the people.
Will someone tell Nancy that Delaware is right next door. Nance, if he represented Colorado, would he be on that choo-choo? Nance? Did you hear the question?
"Joe Biden is the all-American boy," she said in a luncheon for reporters sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor.
And John McCain is...?
They should send Nancy away for a week - maybe to Afghanistan, where she can meet all-American boys, and girls.
August 24, 2008. Permalink
TRACKERS
Posted at 3:24 p.m. ET
Both trackers are out for the day, and they diverge. But we stress again, we're dealing with small changes, inside the margin of error.
As reported earlier, Rasmussen has Obama up three, 48-45, the largest advantage he's had since July.
But Gallup reports a dead heat - each candidate at 45 percent.
An ABC/Washington Post poll released today has Obama up four.
We've pointed out that the daily snapshot isn't very important. It's the trend over time that counts. Even that caveat has to be viewed with caution, however, It's likely that Obama will get a bump in the polls from this week's Democratic convention. The key will be whether he can maintain it, historically unlikely, and whether McCain gets a similar bump from his convention next week.
Voters, in the last month, have been reluctant to change their views. The next two weeks will determine whether either candidate goes into the home stretch with any real advantage.
August 24, 2008. Permalink
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UPDATE AT 9:33 A.M. ET: The new Rasmussen tracker released minutes ago shows Obama with a three-point lead, the largest lead he's had in that poll since late July. The result is consistent with an ABC News/Washington Post poll just released showing Obama up four. This is probably the start of a convention bounce.
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MIRACLE WORKER
Posted at 7:55 a.m. ET
We are now into day two of the wanting of Biden. The national transformation since his selection is truly amazing, isn't it? Crime is down. Peace is breaking out. Women who had trouble conceiving are now pregnant. It's remarkable what happens when you have an experienced man on the scene.
As a matter of fact, the best for Joe Biden is behind him. He's been selected. Now it will be a steady downhill ride into obscurity. Quick: Who was John Kerry's v.p. pick in 2004? Did you take more than three seconds to answer? It was, of course, John Edwards, family man.
How should the McCain camp react to the Biden selection? Ideally, McCain should do something dramatic. The Obama pick was pedestrian. It was poll-driven, a bit of a problem for a presidential candidate who says he'll do things in a new way. Biden's entire reason for being on that ticket is to counter the perception that Obama is weak on foreign policy. He is weak, and he'll stay that way, Joe or no Joe. McCain should now try to be the real agent of change, of political revolution. He should be the man of the future by making an imaginative choice for vice president. I doubt if he will, but it would certainly electrify things if he did. Someone out of the blue, preferably a woman. I say that from a purely political vantage point. Obama's convention is made no more interesting or exciting because of Biden. McCain should turn his into a major show, and create a major name.
August 24, 2008. Permalink
THE MOUTH THAT POURED
Posted at 7:53 a.m. ET
You've all read by now that Senator Biden has some kind of problem that manifests itself in a torrent of words flowing from a smiling mouth. My friend Banafsheh Zand-Bonazzi, whose knowledge of Iranian issues is encyclopedic, points out that some of those words have been disturbing to people who care about the plight of Iranians under the mullahs, and about the international maneuverings of those same mullahs. For whatever reason, Biden has consistently shown a blind spot to the reality of Iran. He has downplayed the Iranian nuclear threat, maintained cordial relations with the mullahs' front men in America, and urged that we take care of Iran's "emotional" needs.
The Republican Jewish Coalition issued a statement saying this about Biden and Iran:
In 1998, Sen. Biden was one of only four senators to vote against the Iran Missile Proliferation Sanctions Act, a bill that punished foreign companies or other entities that sent Iran sensitive missile technology or expertise. Biden was one of the few senators to oppose the bipartisan 2007 Kyl-Lieberman Amendment labeling the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization. In a December 2007 debate, Biden said "Iran is not a nuclear threat to the United States of America." On MSNBC's "Hardball," Biden said he "never believed" Iran had a weapon system under production.
The McCain troops should move quickly to confront Biden on this issue. They should confront him during the Democratic convention, forcing him to explain why he's been so soft on a regime that even Europeans believe is a rogue outfit, and dangerous. Force He has a tendency to get arrogant and petulant. Get him to show that side of him.
Much is being made of Biden's "experience" in foreign policy. Now McCain should throw Barack Obama's own words right back at him - that it's "judgment" that counts. And McCain should question Biden's judgment on Iran.
August 24, 2008. Permalink
"What you see is news. What you know is background. What you feel is opinion."
- Lester Markel, late Sunday editor
of The New York Times.
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